Total Visible Supply

What Is Visible Supply?

Visible supply represents the total amount of physical gold or silver held in exchange-approved warehouses and vaults worldwide. This includes inventory at COMEX (the primary U.S. metals exchange), LBMA (the London bullion market), and SHFE (Shanghai Futures Exchange). By combining data from all major exchanges, we provide a comprehensive view of the metal that is readily available for trading and delivery.

Why Visible Supply Matters

Visible supply is one of the most important fundamental indicators for precious metals. When total visible supply declines, it suggests that physical demand is exceeding the rate at which metal is being delivered to exchange warehouses. Persistent drawdowns can signal a tightening market that may push prices higher. The "production days" metric — total visible supply divided by annual mine production — gives context for how much buffer exists between known stocks and ongoing demand.

Understanding the Data Sources

Each exchange reports inventory on different schedules. COMEX reports daily, LBMA reports monthly, and SHFE reports weekly. To create a consistent daily time series, we forward-fill less frequent data (carrying the last known value forward until a new report is published). All quantities are converted to troy ounces using the standard conversion of 32.1507 troy ounces per kilogram for exchanges that report in metric units.

Gold Visible Supply: COMEX, LBMA, and SHFE

Gold inventory is distributed across three major vault systems, each serving a different regional market. Together, they form the backbone of the global gold supply chain visible to investors and traders.

• LBMA London vaults hold the largest concentration of gold, with thousands of tonnes stored on behalf of central banks, ETFs, and institutional investors. London remains the world's primary over-the-counter gold trading hub.
• COMEX registered vs eligible inventory is a critical distinction. Registered gold is warranted for delivery against futures contracts, while eligible gold is stored in approved vaults but not available for delivery. Shifts between the two categories can signal changing delivery intentions and market tightness.
• SHFE gold inventory serves as an indicator of Chinese physical demand. When SHFE warehouse stocks decline, it often reflects strong domestic consumption and withdrawal of metal from exchange vaults into the broader Chinese market.
• Tracking all three vault systems together provides a more complete picture of global gold supply than any single exchange. Regional divergences — such as LBMA declining while SHFE rises — can reveal important flows of physical metal between East and West.

Silver Visible Supply: A Market Under Pressure

Silver visible supply has been declining across exchanges in recent years, drawing significant attention from investors and analysts. Unlike gold, silver faces demand pressures from both the investment and industrial sectors simultaneously.

• Growing industrial demand from solar panels, electronics, and electric vehicles competes directly with investment demand for physical silver bars and coins.
• Silver is unique among precious metals — approximately 50% of annual demand is industrial, compared to roughly 10% for gold. This makes silver supply particularly sensitive to economic and technological trends.
• COMEX silver registered inventory trends are closely watched as a barometer of deliverable supply. When registered silver declines sharply, it can indicate that futures contract holders are standing for physical delivery rather than rolling positions.
• Silver's persistent supply deficit — where annual demand exceeds mine production and recycling — has become a key narrative for investors who view declining visible supply as evidence of a structurally tight market.

Interpreting Visible Supply Trends

Changes in visible supply can provide valuable context for understanding precious metals markets, but they should be interpreted carefully and in conjunction with other indicators.

• Rising total visible supply may indicate weak physical demand, increased mining output, or metal being returned to exchange warehouses after a period of drawdowns.
• Declining total visible supply suggests physical drawdowns are occurring, which is potentially bullish for prices as readily available inventory shrinks.
• Divergence between exchanges — when one vault system gains inventory while another loses it — suggests metal is flowing between regions rather than being consumed, and can indicate shifting regional demand patterns.
• Seasonal patterns are common, as inventory often shifts around futures delivery months (particularly on COMEX) when contract holders decide whether to stand for delivery or roll their positions forward.
• Important caveats: visible supply is only a fraction of total above-ground stock. Private holdings, central bank reserves, ETF holdings, and unreported inventory are not included. A decline in visible supply does not necessarily mean overall supply is shrinking — metal may simply be moving to non-exchange storage.