Palladium COT Report
CFTC Commitment of Traders positioning for NYMEX palladium futures
Palladium COT Positioning Overview
NYMEX palladium futures (contract code 075651) represent the primary US-traded palladium derivative. Each contract covers 100 troy ounces of palladium. The palladium futures market is the thinnest among major precious metals, with lower open interest and liquidity than gold, silver, or platinum. This makes COT positioning data especially significant, as relatively small changes in speculative positions can move prices substantially.
Palladium's Unique Supply and Demand Profile
Palladium is unique among precious metals because of its extreme supply concentration (Russia and South Africa produce ~80%) and its dominant industrial use case (gasoline catalytic converters account for over 80% of demand). This creates a market that is simultaneously sensitive to geopolitical risk, automotive production cycles, and the long-term transition to electric vehicles. COT positioning often reflects the tug-of-war between these competing factors.
Palladium COT and Auto Industry
Palladium positioning closely tracks auto production expectations because over 80% of palladium demand comes from gasoline catalytic converters. When global auto production forecasts improve — particularly for gasoline and hybrid vehicles — Managed Money tends to build net long positions in palladium futures. Conversely, production downgrades or inventory destocking by automakers can trigger rapid unwinding of speculative longs.
Supply-side risks create asymmetric positioning patterns in palladium. With Russia (Nornickel) and South Africa producing approximately 80% of global supply, geopolitical tensions, sanctions, labor disputes, or operational disruptions can cause sudden positioning spikes. The Russian supply risk has been particularly relevant since 2022, creating periodic bouts of speculative buying on sanctions fears even amid the longer-term bearish demand narrative from EVs.
The EV transition is gradually reshaping palladium COT positioning. Battery electric vehicles do not require catalytic converters, so rising EV market share structurally reduces palladium demand. This has contributed to a secular shift in speculative sentiment, with Managed Money more frequently holding net short or low net long positions compared to the aggressively net long positioning seen during palladium's bull run from 2016 to 2021. However, the pace of EV adoption remains uncertain, and hybrid vehicles (which still use catalytic converters) have complicated the straightforward bearish narrative.
Data Sources & Methodology
Palladium COT data is sourced from the official CFTC disaggregated Commitment of Traders report, which covers NYMEX palladium futures (contract code 075651). The CFTC publishes this data every Friday at 3:30 PM Eastern Time, reflecting positions as of the prior Tuesday's market close.
MetalCharts calculates net positioning (long contracts minus short contracts) for each trader category from the raw CFTC data. Each NYMEX palladium futures contract represents 100 troy ounces. Palladium has the lowest open interest among major precious metals futures, so even modest positioning changes can represent meaningful shifts in market sentiment.
Our palladium COT data updates automatically after each Friday CFTC release and historical data is preserved for long-term trend analysis. Due to palladium's thin market and high volatility, we recommend viewing COT data in the context of open interest levels — positioning shifts during periods of low open interest may be less reliable as sentiment indicators.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What does the palladium COT report show?
- The palladium COT report shows the aggregate positioning of different trader categories in NYMEX palladium futures. It includes Producer/Merchant (miners from Russia and South Africa), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (hedge funds and CTAs), and Other Reportable positions.
- Why is palladium COT data important?
- Palladium is the smallest and most volatile of the major precious metals futures markets. Its COT data is particularly informative because the market is thin enough that large positioning changes can significantly impact price. Over 80% of palladium demand comes from gasoline catalytic converters, making it sensitive to automotive industry trends.
- How does palladium supply concentration affect the COT market?
- Russia (Nornickel) and South Africa produce about 80% of global palladium supply. This extreme concentration means supply disruptions, sanctions, or trade restrictions can cause outsized positioning shifts. The Russian supply risk has been a recurring theme in palladium COT data, particularly since 2022.
- What drives palladium Managed Money positioning?
- Palladium Managed Money positioning is primarily driven by automotive production forecasts, substitution dynamics with platinum, EV adoption rates (which reduce catalytic converter demand), and supply risk from Russia and South Africa. The metal has seen some of the most dramatic positioning swings among precious metals.
- How has the EV transition affected palladium COT positioning?
- The shift toward electric vehicles, which do not require catalytic converters, has been a bearish structural narrative for palladium. This has contributed to persistent Managed Money net short or low net long positioning in recent years, as speculators price in reduced long-term demand for the metal.
- How does palladium supply risk affect COT positioning?
- With Russia and South Africa producing about 80% of global palladium, supply disruptions from sanctions, labor disputes, or operational issues can cause sudden spikes in speculative positioning. Traders often build net long positions rapidly on supply fears, creating asymmetric positioning patterns where supply-driven longs can overwhelm the longer-term bearish demand narrative from the EV transition.